East Carolina vs UAB 10/20/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with East Carolina winning 51% of simulations, and UAB 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. East Carolina commits fewer turnovers in 42% of simulations and they go on to win 62% when they take care of the ball. UAB wins 63% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Shane Carden is averaging 330 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (39% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. Darrin Reaves is averaging 41 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is UAB +3.5

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